Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 21.646752 23.528314 25.560984 27.930934 30.632033 33.631131 37.235971
2025-10-26 18.585368 21.128613 24.065411 27.749154 32.306864 37.844288 45.214753
2025-11-02 16.378378 19.265720 22.776432 27.447232 33.639699 41.786954 53.719511
2025-11-09 14.836362 17.939699 21.876339 27.382075 35.139213 46.120309 63.769062
2025-11-16 13.582068 16.792662 21.008970 27.158666 36.292680 50.106321 74.358501
2025-11-23 12.563166 15.824029 20.233388 26.901955 37.281665 53.962950 85.860776
2025-11-30 11.722546 15.001881 19.549723 26.651050 38.182552 57.797696 98.580186
2025-12-07 11.050368 14.345045 19.019961 26.537951 39.243640 62.083836 113.806249
2025-12-14 10.429054 13.704240 18.443750 26.264058 39.959567 65.859179 129.530345
2025-12-21 10.185067 13.584590 18.624862 27.214120 42.959505 74.805742 162.644031
2025-12-28 9.706443 13.078626 18.162516 27.023635 43.806061 79.474230 187.101577
2026-01-04 9.314603 12.674850 17.823740 26.999885 44.957595 85.126240 218.770365
2026-01-11 9.011229 12.393253 17.667924 27.301431 46.860924 93.281736 267.446096
2026-01-18 8.643746 11.989285 17.281636 27.141973 47.781682 99.305770 314.944276
2026-01-25 8.285024 11.577961 16.852893 26.857402 48.386767 104.726335 367.486410
2026-02-01 7.995681 11.260434 16.558943 26.798072 49.493327 112.035647 443.139779
2026-02-08 7.703481 10.921895 16.204872 26.583337 50.202252 118.449739 527.684174
2026-02-15 7.428313 10.596653 15.852076 26.335311 50.792471 124.772236 629.456138
2026-02-22 7.174029 10.293065 15.517892 26.092413 51.359350 131.320148 756.872709
2026-03-01 6.957361 10.041392 15.260218 25.982924 52.256608 139.558764 941.394036
2026-03-08 6.732631 9.765732 14.942710 25.717350 52.699809 146.325612 1150.755265
2026-03-15 6.685780 9.787813 15.167721 26.638793 56.585909 169.793777 1897.241406
2026-03-22 6.494163 9.552961 14.902232 26.454115 57.292034 179.549868 2525.450653